Lebanon is on a steady path towards victory over the Corona epidemic, following the successful plan of the Ministry of Health and the advanced level of the medical sector, despite the weak capabilities, and the important and leading role assumed by the media sector in Lebanon, that in terms of effective pressure to take the required measures, or in terms of publishing Awareness and knowledge among people.
However, the difficult weeks that the Lebanese successfully passed through were obscured by the extremely important external developments, which establish a difficult fateful stage. At the southern borders of Lebanon, an understanding was announced to form a coalition government between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, according to written clauses signed, which would end more than a year and a half of political turmoil in Israel. But the main aspect of what happened is an agreement to annex more than a third of the West Bank, specifically the areas of Judea and Samaria, starting from next June.
It is clear that the aforementioned coalition would not have taken place according to the program of action that was signed, had it not been for the apparent efforts of the White House, and here the whole point.
We must recall the invitation that US President Donald Trump sent to Gantz to attend alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu, during the announcement of the “Deal of the Day”. The scene suggested the presence of background lines of understanding with the leader of the “Blue and White” party, to encourage him to join forces with Netanyahu.
This means that the background of the agreement goes beyond the Israeli internal side to reach the Palestinian scene and the regional map, as was clear in the clause related to the annexation. But there are questions that must be asked, as starting this step will mean opening the doors of confrontations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, which paves the way that a bloody phase will follow the start of implementation, which may have caused Netanyahu to present a poisoned gift to Gantz. But the question is, how will this be reflected in the Arab arenas, particularly on Jordan? The agreement noted that Gantz and Netanyahu will work in full coordination with Washington, especially with regard to cartography, after the joint American-Israeli group of experts in charge of cartography had suspended its work under the pretext of the Corona virus.
But the question arises within the American administration, about the impact of these expected bloody confrontations on the Trump elections after a few months, and whether it is better to postpone the implementation until next November.
All this indicates the conclusion that the region will face the birth of a monster that will house the Israeli coalition government.
And with him, the message that Hezbollah sent to Israel, through three locations along the border fence, and which were dominated by the character of “magic”, its dimensions become eloquent, in the event of the shock reflected by the Israeli media, even if it came within the framework of the reciprocal response to targeting a car New Yabus and stabilization of the “reciprocity” equation. The Israeli media spoke of a high level of professionalism for Hezbollah and its skillful use of weaknesses in the existing defense systems.
It is true that the Israeli monster government takes into account the American presidential elections after months, but its agenda also monitors two important elections in 2021.
The first merit relates to the Iranian presidential elections, which Washington is closely following. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has increased its internal strength twice. Once because of Trump’s disruption of the nuclear deal, which led to the collapse of the reformist current in the last legislative elections, and again he gained more control over the health care system, after he was given the task of combating the epidemic, which would lead to an increase in his influence on government policy in the future. And with him, the American circles are studying the effects of “Corona” on the future of leadership in Iran and the continuity of the clergy, after the advancement of Omar Ali Khamenei, the leader of the revolution. Consequently, whether the Iranian regime is capable of moving to a new formula subject to a security-military regime, through the emergence of a new leadership figure.
In 2021, the controversial Syrian presidential elections are due, which will inevitably mean accompanying the completion of the final political settlement of Syria. Perhaps against this background, Russian media attacked President Bashar al-Assad. The content of the Russian message to Assad was that the time for a settlement has come and preparation must begin in it, especially since the Russian economy is unable to bear the cost of the war in Syria for a longer period, and there are those who link Russia’s permitting Israeli planes to raid Palmyra and Moscow’s pressure messages on Assad.
Therefore, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may have visited Damascus quickly, to give a dose of support to Assad and to quote the rush to the settlement now. This is because Tehran is still betting on the necessity of awaiting the results of the American presidential elections.
However, this does not prevent him from filling the wasted time with the resumption of Astana talks, even through television communication between Moscow, Ankara and Tehran. This is because Washington is working to prepare and supply pressure papers on Iran, including, for example, the re-employment of ISIS in the Iraqi-Syrian field, especially since the new leader of ISIS, Abu al-Qurashi, was recently monitored to enter Iraq. This was accompanied by impressive attacks by ISIS targeting military points and targets belonging to clans who assisted Iraqi forces in their war against ISIS. Al-Qurashi, who has the most extreme approach to killing and violence, is of Turkmen origin, that is, Turkish roots.
The CIA says that ISIS has maintained its cohesion and integrity in its organizational structure, and that a number of its cells are still operating.
But this does not mean that the effectiveness of the organization now is similar to the days of Al-Baghdadi, even if its number includes some 14,000 elements distributed between Iraq and Syria. But the organization still has combat capabilities, even if limited, that can threaten security and stability in areas ranging from Kirkuk, Diyala, Anbar in Iraq, Homs, Deir Ezzor, Hasaka, and Raqqa in Syria.
Some link the re-highlighting of ISIS to the Iraqi request for the Americans to withdraw from Iraq, which makes the fight against ISIS in need of the American military presence. Others put it in the context of preparing the Iraqi and Syrian arenas and the land corridor between Iran and Lebanon for negotiations to arrange influence and redraw volumes and draw equations from the West Bank to Jordan to Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Which means in all cases that the next stages are very accurate and dangerous.
Johnny Mounir – The Republic
