A build-up of Russian troops, tanks and artillery along Ukraine’s borders leaves the West wary that Moscow could invade
A Ukrainian service member at the line of separation from Russian-backed rebels in the Donetsk region, Jan. 21, 2022. REUTERS/Anna KudriavtsevaBy Prasanta Kumar Dutta, Samuel Granados and Michael OvaskaPUBLISHED JAN. 26, 2022
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been increasing for months after the Kremlin massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders.
Western nations, including the United States and Britain, worry that the large build-up of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders is preparation for an invasion as part of Moscow’s efforts to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the NATO Western security alliance.
Russia has repeatedly denied any plans to invade. However, in 2014 the Russian military seized Ukraine’s southern peninsula of Crimea and gave backing to separatist forces who took control of a swathe of eastern Ukraine.
Russian military units along Ukraine’s border
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300 KM
PERMANENT UNITS
NEW UNITS
GERMANY
RUSSIA
BELARUS
POLAND
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
MOLDOVA
Controlled by Russian-backed separatists
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
Crimea
Black Sea
BULGARIA
GEORGIA
ITALY
GREECE
TURKEY
Note: The Crimean peninsula was annexed by Russia in 2014, but the region is not internationally recognised as part of Russia. Military units reported as of Jan. 23, 2022.
Source: Rochan Consulting
The build-up of troops has been captured by satellite images, showing forces at bases encircling Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders.
“Over the past month, our high-resolution satellite imagery has observed a number of new Russian deployments in Crimea as well as in several training areas in western Russia along the periphery of the Ukraine border,” U.S.-based Maxar Technologies, a space technology company, said in a statement in late December.
The company identified BMP-series infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, self-propelled artillery and air defence equipment among the Russian forces newly arrived in the border region since October.
The following images show the Russian build-up at a few sites around Ukraine over the last two years:
Yelnya
54°36.6845’N, 33°10.5163’E
Valyuki
50°17.2932’N, 38°0.7483’E
Klintsy
52°44.3314’N, 32°1.5994’E
Since the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine has increased its security and defence spending to 6% of GDP, compared to just 2% in 2014, finance ministry data show.
Ukraine’s ramped up defence budget
Ukraine plans to spend nearly 5.95% of its GDP on the military and domestic security in 2022, equivalent to more than $11 billion.about:blank
Military
Security
5.95%
6% of GDP
4%
3.1%
2%
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Note: *2022 figures for Ukraine are planned expenses. Military spending converted at current rate.
Source: Ukraine’s Finance Ministry; Refinitiv Eikon
While Ukraine’s armed forces of more than 200,000 servicemen are less than a quarter the size of Russia’s, they have been significantly boosted since 2014 by Western military aid, including supplies of U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles and Turkish drones.
Ukraine’s military strength
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2014
2020
PERSONNEL
Army
64,000
145,000
Paramilitary*
102,000
Air force
45,000
45,000
Navy
7,000
11,000
Airborne
5,500
8,000
MILITARY SIZE COMPARED TO RUSSIA IN 2020
Army
Paramilitary
Air
force
Navy
Airborne
Reserve
Others^
0
500k
1M
1.5M
2M
2.5M
3M
3.5M
Russia
Ukraine
Note: *Size of Ukrainian Paramilitary forces in 2014 is not known. ^Other Russian forces include 50,000 in Strategic Rocket Force, 1,000 Special Operations Forces, 29,000 Railway Forces and 180,000 Command and Support forces in Russia. The size of Special Operations Forces in Ukraine is not known.
Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies
What would a Russian invasion look like?
Though Russia staunchly denies any plans to invade Ukraine, analysts still see its forces now well positioned to strike into the country.
Seth G. Jones and Philip G. Wasielewski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Russia’s first move could include cyberattacks targeting Ukraine’s military command and control systems, public communications and electrical grids.
Air and missile strikes could next handicap Ukrainian air forces before Russian troops advance over hundreds of kilometres. According to CSIS, once Russian troops have invaded, there are different routes — many along rail lines — they could take based on Moscow’s objectives.
Scenario
Attack from the east
Russia could invade and take control of all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper River, claiming Ukraine’s industrial east but leaving the country in an “economically viable state” according to CSIS.about:blank
A NORTHERN ROUTE would advance to Kiev, possibly through Belarus if Minsk opens road and rail networks to the Russian army.
BELARUS
A CENTRAL ROUTE could advance through three routes, possibly through rebel-held Donesk.
POLAND
Kyiv
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
Luhansk
Donetsk
MOLDOVA
Rostov-on-Don
Kherson
ROMANIA
Crimea
A SOUTHERN ROUTE may advance across the Perekop isthmus towards Kherson, Crimea’s freshwater source.
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Scenario
West to Russian occupation
If Russia is successful in the east and morale at home is still high, its troops could cross the Dnieper River and march west across the relatively rural landscape. Along the Black Sea, Russian forces will also need to seize Odessa and its port facilities — key to a full-scale occupation.about:blank
BELARUS
POLAND
Kyiv
Lviv
RUSSIA
Vinnytsia
MOLDOVA
Odessa
ROMANIA
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Scenario
Control of the sea
Alternatively, Russia could avoid staunch resistance in Ukraine’s major urban areas by attacking along the Black Sea. Seizing Odessa would cut off Ukraine’s access to the sea and to international markets and boost Russia’s influence on trade in the Black Sea.about:blank
BELARUS
POLAND
Kyiv
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
MOLDOVA
Rostov-on-Don
Odessa
ROMANIA
Sevastopol
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Russia likely will need to act soon or hold off on any westward move until the summer months. In March the area’s infamous ‘rasputitsa’ – or thawing of snow and ice – turns the land into mud and bog.
Jones explains that the muddy conditions could slow down armoured divisions and create bottlenecks, making those forces easier targets for anti-tank missiles.
