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A girl stands near the rubble of a house, destroyed when an Islamist militant accidentally killed himself while preparing explosives, Jedeida, Tunisia, Aug. 2, 2013. (photo by REUTERS/Zoubeir Souiss)
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By: Mourad al-Hattab
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Tunisia is going through the most significant political and socioeconomic decline of its contemporary history. The country’s overall situation reminds us of ancient times, when human beings were struck by disasters and unable to escape this unavoidable fate.
According to the Bible, to convince the pharaoh to let the enslaved people of Israel go, God brought seven dreadful plagues upon Egypt (Exodus, 7-12): The Nile became contaminated, preventing Egyptians from drinking its water; frogs covered Egypt; the dust turned into gnats; swarms of flies and wild beasts invaded the country; Egyptians’ livestock died; boils erupted on man and beast; and Adonai, Hebrew for God, sent hail that turned into fire.
How is this biblical apocalyptic event similar to the current situation in Tunisia under the rule of the troika, after a sad Sunday, on Oct, 23, 2011? The Tunisian people are currently enduring calamities that are comparable to the seven plagues of Egypt.
Political context
In Tunisia, it did not take the “transition” too long to turn into a political and economic drama and to plunge the economy into the abyss. Two years after the current rulers rose to power, the majority of people realized they were unfit for office. The extent of the economic crisis, the drop in tourist revenues, the downgrading of sovereign rating and the low financial indicators currently fuel protests and create a negative mood among local and foreign investors. In Tunisia, we excel at cacophony and dogmatism more than managing the economy, reassuring investors and reducing unemployment rates.
For the record, many still remember the extravagant, unrealistic and ridiculous electoral promises made by some parties before October 2011, such as creating 400,000 job opportunities in four years. The promise was certainly “kept” by unduly appointing 4,600 partisans to key state positions within one year. Adopting incompetence as the main criterion, a legion of partisan state employees were employed.
Tunisia is close to hitting rock bottom in terms of financial and economic sovereignty, on an equal footing with the banana republics, tax havens and places lacking a state of law.
The social disaster
The deterioration of the middle class, which is doomed to disappear due to excessive taxes that erode its purchasing power, and the crushing of the youth, who have become the main victims in the eyes of the world during the “revolution,” represent a clear social disaster. According to some surveys, 51% of teenagers and 45% of the youth will try to emigrate, in a clear indication that they are dissatisfied with present conditions, future prospects and an unprecedented level of internal displacement. It is worth noting that 159,000 citizens moved from the most disadvantaged areas to Tunis and other coastal areas between May 2011 and May 2012. This highlights the deteriorating living conditions of a large segment of the Tunisian population.
Galloping terrorism
Following the political assassinations of Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, not a day goes by without discovering a new thwarted attack, weapons cache or terrorist threat in Tunisia. Many Tunisians are surprised, but this is ultimately a logical sequence.
The upsurge of political violence has been fueled by impunity. Terrorists and fundamentalists who aim to undermine basic freedoms, particularly freedoms of association and expression, have often benefited from this impunity.
The role of the state
Protests, security failure and chaos within administrative and decision-making bodies have greatly reduced the prestige and effectiveness of institutions currently suffering from lack of coordination and synergy of action. Consequently, any reform plans have become almost impossible, considering the phenomenon of institutional deregulation, the eradication of which requires significant efforts over the coming years.
An uncertain future
The future we want for Tunisia is more than vague. Our only hope is that Jebel ech Chambi is a natural reserve once again and that policymakers come back to their senses by prioritizing regional development and the fight against poverty and social inequalities. This would allow restoring a healthy business environment and making Tunisia a competitive and attractive location for historical and economic partners.
It is distressing to reach the current conclusion while Tunisia operates without a viable investment code that emphasizes a harmonious partnership between the public and private sectors, drives the spirit of entrepreneurship and works on open-minded foundations, instead of concentrating on the criminalization of certain categories of investors who are essential for boosting production. In foolish steps, they are being overtaxed and encouraged to leave the country, leaving behind tens of thousands of newly unemployed people, social dramas and rising poverty.
I will stop to cite these five disasters while trying to stay constructive and positive. The salvation of our country largely depends on empowering a new ruling class that believes in the principles and standards of proper management of public finances and economic fundamentals. This class should be highly professional and skilled to manage a multidimensional crisis and save the country from the collapse of its financial, social and institutional balance.
The success of the task entrusted to this class requires quick understanding and early diagnosis of the current situation, while making concessions with the players who have taken the initiative. They will provide bailout plans through the optimization of production factors and the search for sustainable resources that could be introduced as soon as possible and at a minimum cost in a fragile and risky economy bordering on bankruptcy.
According to the Bible, to convince the pharaoh to let the enslaved people of Israel go, God brought seven dreadful plagues upon Egypt (Exodus, 7-12): The Nile became contaminated, preventing Egyptians from drinking its water; frogs covered Egypt; the dust turned into gnats; swarms of flies and wild beasts invaded the country; Egyptians’ livestock died; boils erupted on man and beast; and Adonai, Hebrew for God, sent hail that turned into fire.
How is this biblical apocalyptic event similar to the current situation in Tunisia under the rule of the troika, after a sad Sunday, on Oct, 23, 2011? The Tunisian people are currently enduring calamities that are comparable to the seven plagues of Egypt.
Political context
In Tunisia, it did not take the “transition” too long to turn into a political and economic drama and to plunge the economy into the abyss. Two years after the current rulers rose to power, the majority of people realized they were unfit for office. The extent of the economic crisis, the drop in tourist revenues, the downgrading of sovereign rating and the low financial indicators currently fuel protests and create a negative mood among local and foreign investors. In Tunisia, we excel at cacophony and dogmatism more than managing the economy, reassuring investors and reducing unemployment rates.
For the record, many still remember the extravagant, unrealistic and ridiculous electoral promises made by some parties before October 2011, such as creating 400,000 job opportunities in four years. The promise was certainly “kept” by unduly appointing 4,600 partisans to key state positions within one year. Adopting incompetence as the main criterion, a legion of partisan state employees were employed.
Tunisia is close to hitting rock bottom in terms of financial and economic sovereignty, on an equal footing with the banana republics, tax havens and places lacking a state of law.
The social disaster
The deterioration of the middle class, which is doomed to disappear due to excessive taxes that erode its purchasing power, and the crushing of the youth, who have become the main victims in the eyes of the world during the “revolution,” represent a clear social disaster. According to some surveys, 51% of teenagers and 45% of the youth will try to emigrate, in a clear indication that they are dissatisfied with present conditions, future prospects and an unprecedented level of internal displacement. It is worth noting that 159,000 citizens moved from the most disadvantaged areas to Tunis and other coastal areas between May 2011 and May 2012. This highlights the deteriorating living conditions of a large segment of the Tunisian population.
Galloping terrorism
Following the political assassinations of Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, not a day goes by without discovering a new thwarted attack, weapons cache or terrorist threat in Tunisia. Many Tunisians are surprised, but this is ultimately a logical sequence.
The upsurge of political violence has been fueled by impunity. Terrorists and fundamentalists who aim to undermine basic freedoms, particularly freedoms of association and expression, have often benefited from this impunity.
The role of the state
Protests, security failure and chaos within administrative and decision-making bodies have greatly reduced the prestige and effectiveness of institutions currently suffering from lack of coordination and synergy of action. Consequently, any reform plans have become almost impossible, considering the phenomenon of institutional deregulation, the eradication of which requires significant efforts over the coming years.
An uncertain future
The future we want for Tunisia is more than vague. Our only hope is that Jebel ech Chambi is a natural reserve once again and that policymakers come back to their senses by prioritizing regional development and the fight against poverty and social inequalities. This would allow restoring a healthy business environment and making Tunisia a competitive and attractive location for historical and economic partners.
It is distressing to reach the current conclusion while Tunisia operates without a viable investment code that emphasizes a harmonious partnership between the public and private sectors, drives the spirit of entrepreneurship and works on open-minded foundations, instead of concentrating on the criminalization of certain categories of investors who are essential for boosting production. In foolish steps, they are being overtaxed and encouraged to leave the country, leaving behind tens of thousands of newly unemployed people, social dramas and rising poverty.
I will stop to cite these five disasters while trying to stay constructive and positive. The salvation of our country largely depends on empowering a new ruling class that believes in the principles and standards of proper management of public finances and economic fundamentals. This class should be highly professional and skilled to manage a multidimensional crisis and save the country from the collapse of its financial, social and institutional balance.
The success of the task entrusted to this class requires quick understanding and early diagnosis of the current situation, while making concessions with the players who have taken the initiative. They will provide bailout plans through the optimization of production factors and the search for sustainable resources that could be introduced as soon as possible and at a minimum cost in a fragile and risky economy bordering on bankruptcy.
