Posted by: John Phoenix
A political race on the doorstep of Damascus..
The race did not start today, but it has definitely become more frantic than ever before. While Iran and Russia managed to break the political ice between Turkey and Syria, Saudi Arabia is seeking, through the UAE and Egypt, to reach an understanding with the Syrian government in order to return Syria to its natural Arab place to reduce Turkey’s influence and to restore Saudi’s influence in the region as well.
Perhaps the most important reason for this change was the tour of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the Gulf countries in March 2021, where he showed these countries that if they really fear Turkish and Iranian expansion in Syria, then they must offer support as an alternative to Iranian support and fight Turkish expansion in cooperation with the Syrian state. This approach might be what culminated President Al-Assad’s visit to the UAE.
Official visits to Damascus began following the meeting that brought together the defense ministers and heads of the intelligence agencies of Russia, Syria and Turkey in Moscow, and the agreement to follow up the negotiations, starting with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the UAE, which wants to play a role in sponsoring a Turkish-Syrian agreement by offering to host a summit that brings together Presidents Putin, Erdogan, and Bashar al-Assad.
UAE would never dare to take a step towards Syria without Saudi-American approval.
Syria is considered the gateway to any Iranian understanding with Arab Gulf states and a guarantor for all parties. This is a role that the late President Hafez al-Assad dedicated to Syria, and which President Bashar al-Assad continued to play by making Syria a safety valve in the region. (Previous article, Al-Assad’s visit to the UAE)
On January 12, Alexander Lavrentiev, the special envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, came to Damascus for the same purpose and heard from President Bashar Al-Assad regarding talks with Turkey:
“These meetings, in order for them to be fruitful, must be based on prior coordination and planning between Syria and Russia in order to reach the tangible goals and results that Syria wants from these meetings based on the national constants and principles of the state and the people to end the occupation and stop supporting terrorism.“ Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Only two days later, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian came to Damascus and confirmed Iran’s support for Syria by denying what Western media published about the increase in Iranian oil prices to Syria, and agreeing to renew the long-term strategic cooperation document between the two countries, which is supposed to be signed during the upcoming visit of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi to Syria, a visit that was postponed to both Syria and Turkey, clearly because the Turkish-Syrian negotiations did not reach any real results yet.
With all this frantic political movement, a date for a Syrian-Turkish meeting at the level of foreign ministers has been set yet, but security-military meetings are still agreed upon, which clearly indicates that the Syrian perspective has not and will not change. “Any progress on the political level must be preceded by real security and military steps on the ground”.
Most political statements talk about the 2254 agreement, but it is practically gone forever, along with Sochi, Astana and previous agreements. A new stage of negotiations has begun based on the Tehran summit led by Damascus and its allies. Perhaps what will mostly confirm this, or clarify it in the future, is the announced visit of Raisi to Damascus soon.
The United States and SDF..
The US knows very well that the Syrian leadership will not give up its sovereign decision, no matter what the US offers, whether sanctions relief or a partial withdrawal from Syria, so it resorts to pressure by increasing the sanctions and activating its ISIS cells in the Syrian Badia to the east and in Daraa to the south, which the Syrian leadership is well aware of. Syrian Arab Army sent military reinforcements to the desert to launch a new combing campaign targeting ISIS cells there, while it intensified its security efforts in Daraa to target the remaining leaders of terrorist organizations in the south.
In the same context, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Ethan Goldrich, the German Special Envoy to Syria Stephen Schneck, the French Envoy to Syria Brigitte Curmi, and the British Envoy to Syria Jonathan Hargreaves held talks in Geneva with the so-called “Negotiations Committee”, which included the head of the committee, Badr Jamous, and the co-chair of the “Constitutional Committee”, Hadi Al-Bahra, concluded that any political move in regards of Syria should be linked to the implementation of Resolution 2254, according to the American understanding of the resolution.
While Russia seeks to form a military faction loyal to the Syrian government from clan fighters in Al-Hasakah Governorate, to deploy it on the front lines with Turkey within the area extending between the towns of “Abu Rasin – Tal Tamr”, the US is trying to find an alternative military formation
On January 20 and 21, the CIA held meetings between figures from the Arab Shummar clan, from Al-Jarba and Al-Hamidi families, in its illegal base in Rumailan, Hasakah governorate, to agree on handing over Raqqa northern countryside to the “Raqqa Military Council” led by Ahmed Aloush, the former leader of the “Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade” militia, which was dissolved in the summer of 2018 after disagreements with the leaders of the SDF. And to hand over Hasakah northern countryside to the “Jazira Military Council”. But SDF leader Mazloum Abdi refused to assign the former president of the so-called “National Coalition” Ahmed al-Jarba to lead these militias, given their deep differences regarding northern Syria, since Al-Jarba formed the so-called “Syria’s Tomorrow Movement“, which has armed militias called the “Elite Forces”. Knowing that this militia’s number declined after they withdrew, by US instruction, from areas southwest of Hasakah Governorate three years ago.
The meetings are to reassure SDF that Kurds will maintain leadership and that restructuring SDF is merely a nominal process to remove Turkish threats.
The US moves clearly aim to block any political moves in the region towards Damascus, just as the United States wants to take the negotiating card of the Syrian opposition from Turkey and keep it only to Washington. The US is also negotiating with Erdogan to stop the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement by appeasing Ankara with arms deals and also trying to mediate between SDF and Turkey.
The US did not instruct SDF to reduce the weapons deployed in border areas, or even to clear out the minefields deployed by SDF there. SDF also received landmines from northern Iraq, including internationally banned anti-personnel mines, to be planted on the border strip after getting US approval.
SDF could not get the real intentions of the US of this new nominal restructure, which made SDF fumble internally.
SDF faces continuous popular resistance rejecting both its control and the US occupation in the eastern region, so it increases its violations against the residents of those areas, while negotiating with the Syrian leadership to avoid getting forceably expelled from its areas by making some concessions such as raising the Syrian flag and accept deployment of the Syrian Arab Army in additional areas east of the Euphrates. But the Syrian leadership is in a victorious position and will not accept any nominal concessions, and maybe this is why SDF’s delegation returned from Damascus empty-handed.
Erdogan’s successive statements clearly show his urgency to hold a meeting at the presidential level, but does he have enough time to implement any agreements before that? If an agreement is reached.
