FLASHBACK- On Political Order and the “Arab Spring”


By Amichai Magen

 FLASHBACK- On Political Order and the “Arab Spring”By Amichai Magen, in Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs VI : 1 (2012). Read the full reportAmichai  Magen  is  head  of  political  development  at  the  Institute  for  Counter-Terrorism  (ICT) and a lecturer at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya. Dr. Magen is a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover 
Institution,  Stanford  University,  and  a  member  of  the  World  Jewish  Congress (WJC)
Executive Committee.
With the advent of the Arab Spring, freedom’s long march had finally reached
the southern shores of the Mediterranean and the Arab heartland.A fourth global wave of 
democratization is upon us, protracted and messy as it may be.Like water dripping on a rock, the forces of modernization and globalization have corroded and finally cracked open the last remaining region of theworld that hs long appeared—mistakenly, as it turned out—impregnable to the norms and institutions of political competition and accountability. The fact that the revolts are occurring in clustersof geographically proximate states is also reminiscent of past patternsof democratization, which typically display regional “contagion” and“domino” effects.Israel has a deep vested interest in the emergence of consolidated liberal democracies in North Africa and the Middle East, and so should strive, whereverpossible, to establish links with genuine democrats and to empower them where itcan. Moreover, just as the emergence of Southern Sudan as an independent state provided Israel with a rare opportunity to establish diplomatic, economic and security ties with a south eastern African country, resurgent Kurdish nationalism creates new opportunities for constructive alliances.
Under the authoritarian 

adaptation scenario, existing regimes will reluctantly liberalize in response to fear of instability; striving to accommodate and co-opt opposition forces. Such accommodation may be direct— 
in that it will legalize formerly banned political parties and form coalition governments with Islamists 
—or indirect,opening up new space for opposition participation in economiclife, civil society, 
the media, and security forces. Authoritarian adaptation may therefore lead to the Pakistanization  
of the state security forces of erstwhile western supported Arab states, with Islamist elements  
penetrating military, police,and intelligence agencies.Liberalized autocracy is an inherently 
unstable equilibrium, however, and so is likely to be succeeded, sooner or later, if not by democracy, 
then by new forms of authoritarianism.29[[[[[
Together with its (PUPPETS)allies, Israel would do 
well to closely study, monitor, and  report on Islamist movements’efforts to exploit or 
 subvert new political openings. Military, diplomatic,and economic aid to North African
 and Middle Eastern countries must also be more closely coordinated by Western powers,
 and conditioned more stringently on substantive democratic reforms.]]]]]]]
[ed notes:so israhell is loaning money and selling military hardware to 
MENA region nations but under the radar thru third parties,like US and
 Europe(wich are zionist controlled already anyway)

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