Egypt: What Will Happen Next?


In the West there is plenty of analysis of the situation in Egypt, what’s happening now, what could happen in the near future, who might take over etc
But the truth is no one knows, as with most major world events, ie. the fall of the Eastern bloc.
Sometime down the line, things will settle and ex post facto rationalisations will become the order of the day, borne out, frequently, by the contemporary agendas that are at play.
Still, we would be foolish not to admit how contingent history is.
How a simple action here or there could have changed the order of things. How a trivial mistake by one party or another could have lead to a completely different outcome. That type of thinking tends to get lost after the events when we try to make sense of things, and there is an unfortunate tendency to indulge in post hoc ergo propter hoc.
We all do it, to some degree, but it is more common amongst politicos and politicians, and those who have an agenda to push.
But we shouldn’t forget that, at the moment, no one really knows anything, and despite what will happen, the post rationalisations to come, we are all scrambling around in the dark.
That is not to say that serious researchers in the future might be able to provide insights into the events and the people concerned, however, that seems unlikely in the short-term.
So here is a subjective selection of the thoughts of others.

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