Reuters: Details of Iran’s attack on Saudi Aramco from start to finish
Posted by: Sammi Ibrahem,Sr
TEHRAN – Four months before a swarm of drones and missiles disrupted the world’s largest oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, Iranian security officials gathered at a heavily fortified complex in Tehran.
Among those present were senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the Iranian military establishment, whose competencies include missile development and covert operations.
The main theme on that May day was how to punish the United States for withdrawing from a historic nuclear agreement and its return to economic sanctions against Iran, two steps that dealt a severe blow to the Islamic Republic.
In the presence of Major General Hussein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, a senior commander stood addressing the audience, while quoting four sources familiar with what took place in the meeting quoted the commander as saying, “It is time to publicize our swords and teach them a lesson.”
Hardliners spoke of attacking high-value targets, including US military bases.
The outcome of the meeting, however, was a plan that did not amount to an open confrontation that could result in a devastating US response. Iran has opted instead to target oil facilities in US ally Saudi Arabia, a proposal discussed by top Iranian military officials at that meeting in May and at least four subsequent meetings.
This account of events, described by Reuters as three officials familiar with the meetings and a fourth official familiar with Iran’s decision-making, represents the first description of the role Iranian leaders played in planning a September 14 attack on Saudi Aramco.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has agreed to the operation under strict conditions that Iranian forces should avoid injuring any civilians or Americans, the officials said.
Reuters could not confirm this account of events from the Iranian leadership. A Revolutionary Guards spokesman declined to comment. Iran has insisted it was not involved.
Ali Reza Mir Yousufi, spokesman for the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York, rejected the account. He said Iran had not played a role in the attacks and there had been no meetings of senior security officials to discuss such an operation and Khamenei had not authorized any attack.
“No, no, no, no, no, no,” Mir Yusufi said in response to detailed questions from Reuters about those meetings and what was said about Khamenei’s role.
The Saudi government communication center did not respond to a request for comment.
The CIA and Pentagon declined to comment. A senior Trump administration official did not comment directly on Reuters findings, but said Tehran’s behavior and “history of devastating attacks over decades and supporting terrorism is why its economy is in chaos.”
Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi group has claimed responsibility for the attack on Saudi oil facilities. US and Saudi officials dismissed the announcement, saying the complexity of the process referred to Iran. The Houthis are a key part of a civil war against Saudi-backed forces.
Saudi Arabia was a strategic target.
The kingdom is Iran’s main rival in the region and the giant of the oil industry, whose production is vital to the global economy. Saudi Arabia is an important security partner for the United States.
But its war in Yemen, where thousands of civilians have been killed and the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by a group of Saudi workers last year, has strained relations with members of the US Congress.
Congress did not see a wave of support for military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia following the attack.
The 17-minute attack on two Aramco facilities by 18 drones and three low-altitude missiles revealed how much the Saudi oil company was exposed despite billions the kingdom spent on security.
Fires broke out in Saudi Arabia’s Khurais facility and the world’s largest oil processing plant, Abqaiq.
The attack has temporarily halved Saudi oil production and disrupted 5 percent of global oil supplies. World oil prices rose.
The attack prompted US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to accuse Iran of “an act of war.” Additional US sanctions were imposed on Tehran. US officials also told Reuters the United States had launched cyber attacks on Iran.
Find goals
TEHRAN (Reuters) – A plan by Iranian military commanders to strike Saudi oil facilities has evolved over several months, the official familiar with Iran’s decision-making said.
“Details were discussed at length in at least five meetings and final approval was issued” by September, the official said.
Three officials told Reuters the meetings took place at a secure location inside the complex in southern Tehran. They said Supreme Leader Khamenei attended one of those meetings at his residence, also located inside the compound.
Among those attending some of those meetings were Yahya Rahim Safavi, Khamenei’s top military adviser and deputy to Qasem Soleimani, who heads the Revolutionary Guards’ foreign and secret military operations, the officials said. Rahim Safavi could not be reached for comment.
One potential target was initially discussed at a seaport in Saudi Arabia, the official familiar with the decision-making process said. The source did not want to give further details.
The four officials said the ideas were ultimately ruled out because of fears of heavy casualties that could lead to a harsh response from the United States and encourage Israel to push the region into war.
The official familiar with the decision-making said the group had settled on a plan to attack the two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia because it could make headlines and do economic damage to an opponent while delivering a strong message to Washington.
“The agreement on Aramco was reached almost unanimously,” the official said. “The idea was to review Iran’s ability to reach depth and its military capabilities.”
It was the worst attack on oil installations in the Middle East since Iraqi President Saddam Hussein set fire to Kuwaiti oil fields during the 1991 Gulf crisis.
US Senator Martha Maxali, a former Air Force Republican who was briefed by US and Saudi officials and visited the Abqaiq facility after the attack, said the attackers knew exactly where they should be hit to cause the most damage.
“The attack revealed a person who understands very well the operations of a facility similar to what he has, not just bombing targets based on satellite imagery,” she told Reuters. It said the drones and missiles “came from Iranian territory, from an Iranian base.”
A Middle Eastern source briefed by a state investigating the attack said the launch site was the Ahwaz airbase in southwest Iran. The assessment is similar to what three US officials and two other people who spoke to Reuters, a Western intelligence official and a Western source working in the Middle East, said.
Instead of flying directly from Iran to Saudi Arabia over the Gulf, they said, missiles and drones took various indirect routes to oil facilities as part of Iran’s bid to hide its involvement in the attack.
According to the Western intelligence source, some planes flew over Iraq and Kuwait before reaching Saudi Arabia, giving Iran a reasonable chance of being implicated.
“It would have been different if the missiles and drones had been seen or heard flying on their way to Saudi Arabia over the Gulf from a southern air route,” he said.
Revolutionary Guards leaders briefed the supreme commander on the successful operation hours after the attack, according to the official close to Iran’s decision-making circles.
Media around the world showed images of fires burning at Saudi oil installations. The Saudi stock market tumbled and world oil prices jumped 20 percent immediately after the attack. Saudi Aramco officials gathered in the so-called “emergency management room” at the company’s headquarters.
One official who spoke to Reuters said the result of the operation delighted Tehran, which dealt a painful blow to Saudi Arabia and mocked the United States.
Assess Trump’s potential
The IRGC and other branches of the Iranian army report to Khamenei as their head. The Supreme Leader’s reaction was defiant in Trump’s abandonment last year of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the so-called nuclear deal with Iran.
That deal with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Russia, France, China and Britain – as well as Germany led to the lifting of billions of dollars of sanctions on Iran in return for Tehran to restrict its nuclear program.
Trump’s demand for a better deal prompted Iran to embark on a two-track strategy to mitigate the effects of US re-sanctions that have paralyzed its oil exports and cut Iran off from the global banking system almost entirely.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has expressed willingness to meet US officials on condition that all sanctions are lifted. Simultaneously, Iran boasts its military and technical capabilities.
In recent months, Iran shot down a US drone and seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil traffic passes. Tehran has declared stockpiles of enriched uranium in violation of the nuclear deal as part of its pledge to resume its nuclear program.
Aramco’s attacks were an escalation that came at a time when Trump is pursuing his long-stated goal of withdrawing US troops from the Middle East. Just days after announcing a surprise withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, the Trump administration said on October 11 it would send fighter jets, missile defense weapons and 2,800 extra troops to Saudi Arabia to bolster the kingdom’s defenses.
US Defense Secretary Mark Asper warned Tehran in an interview with reporters: “Do not attack another sovereign country and do not threaten US interests or American forces or we will respond.”
However, Iran seems to have calculated that the Trump administration will not risk a full-scale attack that could destabilize the region in order to protect Saudi oil, said Ali Waiz, project manager for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit group working to end international conflicts.
A preacher said militants in Iran “have come to believe that Trump is just a tiger” on Twitter. So there is no diplomatic or military price for any pressure on their part. “
A senior Trump administration official dismissed the idea that the Iran operation had strengthened its ability to reach an agreement to ease US sanctions.
“Iran knows exactly what it needs to do to lift the sanctions,” he said.
The administration says Iran must end support for terrorist groups in the Middle East and submit to tougher conditions that completely eliminate its nuclear ambitions. Iran says it has no links to terrorist groups.
It is unclear whether Iran will comply with US demands.
In one of the last meetings ahead of the attack on Saudi oil facilities, another commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was already looking ahead, according to an official close to Iran’s decision-making circles who was briefed on the meeting.
“Trust that God Almighty will be with us. Start planning for the next attack,” the commander told senior security officials.
