NOVANEWS
Calls for urgent protection of the Kurdish Minority in Syria are growing on a daily basis, with Human Rights Groups and Global Leaders calling on the United Nations Security Council to send help now. Turkey in it’s supportive role as a member of NATO is providing support to the un-elected and so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA), a Western/NATO created entity which does not have any support within Syria itself among the Citizens.
The plight of the Syrian Kurds who are reportedly being killed in the hundreds thus far has been ignored deliberately for a very simple Geo-Strategic reason, with France, UK, USA, Germany and other Members States of the NATO Alliance remaining silent to their plight are about to achieve a much bigger prize that will directly challenge Russia in the Region and in terms of Natural Resources alternative sources, specifically Gas supplies to the West.
Memories are still fresh in the minds of most European Leaders when a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over unpaid bills for the supply of Gas during the period 2005-2009, this led to serious disruptions to the supply to Europe as Gas Pipelines passed through Ukraine, the situation was eased in 2011 with the opening of the Nord Stream Pipeline which does not pass through Ukraine. Given that the scenario was likely to be repeated and Europe was increasingly becoming dependant on Russian Gas Supplies, an alternative had to be found to ensure that Russia would not be a single source for the vital Gas resource.
The former-Soviet-Stans holding large-scale reserves of Gas was an option that the West explored known as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline that would run from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan through to Pakistan known as the UNOCAL Project has largely failed to materialise despite the fact the US/NATO Allies occupy Afghanistan and installed their own man in power who was also a former-employee of UNOCAL, President Hamid Karzai. An alternative had to be found to this route that will allow for a Pipeline Project through the Kurdish areas of Iraq and Syria, except there was one small problem, that of the Government in Damascus led by President Bashar al-Assad, a staunch Ally of Russia and no-friend of the West in real terms.
NATO’s Allies started to explore a Oil Pipeline from Kurd-Iraq Territories through Kurd-Syria and into Turkey or Israel Ports, this would include a proposal for a Gas Pipeline that would by-pass both, Russia and Iran. The first phase of this proposed Pipeline would be for the Iraq-Syria-Turkey which would then include an additional Pipeline to include Oil & Gas from Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan through the Caspian Sea into Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey.
With the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov calling for the urgent protection of the Kurds in Syria, he is unwittingly inviting a situation similar to the Iraq Kurds scenario where the United Nations Security Council imposed a No-fly Zone North of the 38th Parallel over Iraq while the now deposed & executed President Saddam Hussein was still in Power to offer protection to the Kurdish Minorities leading to a semi-autonomous areas cut-off from Iraq and self-rule that is in play to this day.
Now the perfect storm is brewing that will lead to the establishment of a “Protection Zone” for the Kurds of Northern Syria, the 36th Parallel Option based tried-and-tested United Nations Security Council Resolution’s passed on the 38th Parallel on Korea and Iraq. This will consist of UN “Blue Helmets” Peace-enforcing Forces which is more than likely to be from NATO Member States with US, UK, France, Germany, Turkey taking on main roles while the rest of the “Coalition of the Willing” will take on token roles fielding small Units of lightly-Armed Personnel. This Force will also likely include a token Middle Eastern Force consisting of the main protagonists in the current Syrian Conflict, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait.
Once a UN Protection Force is established, which will be more than likely before the end of 2013, hostilities against the Syrian Central Government will lessen but the threat will not go away, effectively Syria will subjected to “Balkanization” along the lines of Bosnia-i-Herzegovina where there is a 3-State Parliament (Serbs, Croats, Muslim), and Iraq (Kurd, Sunni, Shia). Assad will remain in Power, at least for the foreseeable future as long as he does not interfere with the Kurdish artificial State that will be established in the North.
An alternative source for Natural Gas will be brought in through this areas, dependence on Russian Gas will lessen and NATO Troop withdrawal from Afghanistan can begin in earnest. Libya, Mali, Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria can now look forward to a future of occupation, exploitation and further carving-up of their Sovereign Territories as new areas of Natural Resources are found, there will be many more parallels to look forward to in the coming years.
Best regards,
Moeen Raoof