I haven’t written much about the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, because I assume people don’t really care very much, and also because I find the whole situation personally frustrating.
For those who don’t know: this is a disputed territory in the former USSR (exactly like Eastern Ukraine), where a territory that is majority Armenian (Christian) ended up on the Azerbaijani (Moslem) side of the border. They declared themselves semi-autonomous in the 1990s after a war, and for more than a decade, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accepted the status quo.
The status quo was rattled in 2016 and then more serious in 2020 when a real war broke out. This was part and parcel of the US attempt to cause trouble on Russia’s doorstep. It was confirmed that Turkey sent in a bunch of terrorists from Syria (who were out of a job after Russia cleaned up that mess) to fight for the Azeris.
There’s been an ongoing conflict – really a low-intensity warfare situation – since 2020, when Russia brokered a ceasefire. The Azeris on Tuesday made a move to inflict brutal dominance over the territory, labeled an “anti-terrorism operation” – exactly what Zelensky started doing in 2021 in Eastern Ukraine.
Zelensky in Donetsk in 2021 doing a photo-op for his operation against separatists
Unfortunately, the Armenians elected a traitorous government that is anti-Russia and was not doing anything about this situation. Briefly: the country’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was the leader of the 2018 anti-Russian, Western-backed color revolution. His policy is that the country should be integrated into Europe (even though he’s at various points lied about that). The president, elected in 2020, is also a part of this anti-Russian, pro-EU trend.
A majority of Armenians apparently supported all of this anti-Russian stuff, and apparently didn’t realize that their arch-nemesis the Azeris were totally backed by the US/EU and that the West likes Azeris better because the West is Jewish and Azeris are not Christian.
Now, today, the realization has come, as the leadership sits and does nothing while the Azeris assert total control over Nagorono-Karabakh.
Mass protests continued in the Armenian capital for the second straight day on Wednesday, prompted by a new escalation in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Protesters gathered in Yerevan’s government quarter, denouncing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as a “traitor” to the Armenian people and demanding that he step down over what they view as his failure to help the predominantly ethnically Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The rally was marred by violence, as protesters trying to breach government buildings faced off against a large police force guarding them.
Footage from the scene shows police officers clad in riot gear scuffling with the crowd. Several people were reportedly injured during the skirmishes.
By late Wednesday, however, the unrest had seemingly waned, as most protesters had left the government quarter.
A separate rally was held outside Russia’s embassy in Yerevan by protesters blaming the Nagorno-Karabakh situation on Moscow. Many demonstrators were seen waving US, EU, and even Ukrainian flags, as well as ripping up and burning Russian passports.
The new flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh started on Tuesday when Baku launched what it called an “anti-terrorist” operation in the breakaway region. The Azerbaijani military made rapid gains against local forces until a ceasefire on Wednesday brokered by Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region seemingly put a halt to the hostilities.
This could turn into a pro-Russian revolution. Hopefully it does.
Russia is on standby to come in and clean out the Azeri filth, but right now, the government of Armenia is standing in their way. If the Armenians were to rise up and install a new nationalistic, pro-Russian government, Russia could vastly increase the size of their peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh, and protect the people from the terroristic Islamic aggression.
Of course, the US has been looking for places to transfer their anti-Russian war out of the Ukraine due to massive losses, so it’s probably all part of the plan that Russia get further involved in this. The difference is, Russia could probably win quickly. It’s not exactly the same as the Donbass situation, given that Nagorno-Karabakh was independent from 1994, and there might not be a lot of popular support among the Azeris for a protracted war.
That said, with terrorist veterans of the Syrian war being airdropped in, it might not matter how much the Azeri population cares about the war.
Russian Peacekeepers Killed
Azeris killed Russian peacekeepers in their attack today.
A group of Russian peacekeepers was killed in Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday, when their vehicle came under small-arms fire, the Russian Defense Ministry has said.
The peacekeepers were returning to an observation post when their car was attacked by unknown assailants. All the servicemen inside the car were killed on the spot, the military said, without revealing the exact number of casualties.
Russian and Azerbaijani investigators are examining the scene of the incident, the military added.
Whenever people die, you hate to say “this is good,” but it is certainly going to drum-up support in Russia for more action in the region.
It’s definitely something the Azeris should have tried to avoid, one would think.
The Notable, Obvious Thing Here
The US government – both parties – have told us that the Ukraine conflict is “the most important thing in the world.” That’s a direct quote from Mitch McConnell, and the Democrats have echoed the sentiment.
Somehow, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is not the most important thing in the world, and in fact, has been of relatively little importance, despite the fact that it is literally the exact same situation: an ethnic group caught on the wrong side of a border after the fall of the USSR.
Whatever else you can say about this Armenia-Azerbaijan situation, it demonstrates, as an absolute fact, that a random border skirmish in the former USSR is not the most important thing in the world. There have been dozens of these events, and all of a sudden, for no reason, the 2022 Russian SMO in the Ukraine became the most important thing ever.
The Nagorno-Karabakh situation is less important for a lot of reasons, firstly that neither party is really anti-Europe or pro-Russia (for now), and also neither party is hardcore pro-anal. There is less “grip,” as it were, for a US military operation to attach itself to.
That said, if the Armenian government changes, and becomes more pro-Russian as a result of this, then the US will definitely start sending resources to Azerbaijan. It’s definitely going to be a lot harder to do, however.
Look at the map:
Despite the fact that Azeris have a shared history and culture with Iran, Iran is dependent on Russia, and is definitely, certainly, not going to let America run supplies over their border. Turkey will clandestinely run terrorists, but they can’t really let the US set up shop and move heavy weaponry.
It’s not really a situation the US could hope to win, though they can create a problem.
The Armenians are the good guys, even though they’ve made some bad government decisions over the last few years, egged on by European promises.