Use the FT’s interactive calculator and the latest polling data to zero in on which states’ electoral college votes are most essential to winning the presidencyLAST UPDATED 11 HOURS AGOElectoral college votes308Joe BidenDEMOCRAT131Donald TrumpREPUBLICAN270 to win188120993794Solid (188)Calif55NY29Ill20NJ14Wash12Mass11Md10Conn7Oreg7NMex5Hawaii4RI4DC3Del3Vt3Maine-11Leaning (120)Flor29Penn20Mich16Virg13Minn10Wisc10Colo9Nev6NH4Maine2Neb-21Toss-up (99)Texas38Ohio18Geor16NCar15Ariz11Maine-21States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states.Leaning (37)Misso10SCar9Iowa6Utah6Alaska3Mont3Solid (94)Ind11Tenn11Alab9Ken8Lou8Okla7Ark6Kans6Missi6WVirg5Idaho4NDak3SDak3Wyo3Neb2Neb-11Neb-31How Biden and Trump are polling in the closest statesAverage poll margin in percentage points42024Biden leadsTrump leadsGeorgiaTexasNorth CarolinaArizonaOhioKEYBAR HEIGHT SHOWSNUMBER OF ELECTORALCOLLEGE VOTESIncludes states with more than one recent poll
With just over three months to go before the election, national polls show former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee, at a significant advantage over incumbent Republican president Donald Trump. But because of the US electoral college system, the outcome will probably come down to a few key states.
Currently, Mr Biden is polling ahead of Mr Trump in key battlegrounds like Florida, where Covid cases have surged in recent weeks. White seniors in particular, a group that helped propel Mr Trump to victory in 2016, have shown signs of disapproval towards the president’s handling of the pandemic. In Texas, where the difference in poll numbers between Mr Biden and Mr Trump is less than 5 percentage points, a few recent polls have given Mr Biden a slight advantage, suggesting a close race in November in the quintessential red state. The coronavirus has realigned voters’ concerns and behaviour. For recent developments in voter sentiment, see the monthly FT-Peterson Economic Monitor.
After Mr Trump’s 2016 victory, many Americans, including supporters of Mr Biden, are apt to mistrust the polls, especially at the state level. Think the polls have it wrong in the most important states? Use our interactive calculator below to select who you think will win each state.
Methodology
The FT poll tracker is based on data from Real Clear Politics. We calculate poll averages for Biden and Trump in each state using an exponential decay formula, which gives more weight to recent polls. We then use these averages to determine whether a state is ‘solid’, ‘leaning’, or a ‘toss-up’. States where the difference between the two candidates is more than 10 percentage points are classified as ‘solid’, while those with a difference of less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states. If a state has less than two polls in the past 60 days, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to categorise it. We consider Cook’s ‘likely’ and ‘lean’ states ‘leaning’ in our classification. For several hours on June 23, we included states with only one poll.
Most states use a ‘winner-takes-all’ method to allocate electoral college votes: the winner of the state’s popular vote receives all of its electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, however, the winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote and the statewide winner is awarded two electoral votes.Polls collected by
Key presidential races calculator
Joe Biden and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states the race is too close to call. These toss-up states are ranked below, with the closest races shown first. Which way do you think they will vote?
Pick a presidential winner by selecting who you think will win each state
If the election were held today, Biden’s advantage in solid and leaning states suggests he can secure an electoral college majority without toss-up states, leaving Trump with a narrower path to victory.
Trump (131)
Biden (308)Toss-up (99)270 to winReset state selectionsToss-up statesTOSS-UPBiden +0.1Texas38
VotesBidenTrumpTOSS-UPBiden +2North Carolina15
VotesBidenTrumpTOSS-UPBiden +3Arizona11
VotesBidenTrumpTOSS-UPBiden +3Ohio18
VotesBidenTrumpTOSS-UPTrump +4Georgia16
VotesBidenTrumpTOSS-UPMaine (District 2)1
VoteBidenTrumpLeaning statesLEANING DEMOCRATBiden +6Wisconsin10
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATBiden +7Pennsylvania20
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANTrump +7Missouri10
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATBiden +7Florida29
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATBiden +8Michigan16
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANAlaska3
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANIowa6
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANMontana3
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANSouth Carolina9
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING REPUBLICANUtah6
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATColorado9
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATMaine (Statewide)2
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATMinnesota10
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATNebraska (District 2)1
VoteBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATNevada6
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATNew Hampshire4
VotesBidenTrumpLEANING DEMOCRATVirginia13
VotesBidenTrumpSolid states
