Posted by: Sammi Ibrahem,Sr
The concerns of the Lebanese people increase as the mysterious future approaches. The formation of the government and the acceptance of the rising street, and the parties and the international community, depend on time.
The strongest economic and financial crisis in the history of Lebanon cannot bear more time and waste. So will the political forces succeed in crossing this crisis and exempting the Lebanese citizen from the specter of bankruptcy? The economic and financial erosion, the loss of confidence in the banking sector, the Lebanese pound, and the increase in poverty are increasing. And if the popular protests have receded due to weather factors and the confusion of some political papers, the decline of the dollar in the markets imposed a new equation represented by high prices and declining purchasing power, which increased the poverty rate despite the passing of glorious holidays that bite some minor wounds.
To answer some of the concerns of the Lebanese people, the “Major General” had a conversation with the economic researcher Professor Jassem Agaqa, who answered the following questions:
1- Did the holidays move the markets positively, or are they not enough?
This movement is not enough to restore the economic wheel to normal due to the limited consumption resulting from it and due to concerns about the future due to the existing political situation and the ambiguity that surrounds this future as a result of the delay in forming the government.
2 – You said earlier: The delay in forming a government is tantamount to playing with fire. So, did assigning Prime Minister Hassan Diab cool the economic situation or made it more difficult?
This delay is played with fire due to the economic, financial, social and monetary implications that worsen over time. But formation will not be the solution. Rather, it is the main entry point for the solution, given that the return of economic reality to its nature requires an economic plan by the government and most importantly its implementation. And about the time required for that, “we expect that the rescue operation will extend over three years and the first year will be difficult for everyone.”
3- What are the Lebanese people waiting for in the year 2020? Famine or luxury?
In fact, all the possibilities presented are mainly related to the formation of the government and the satisfaction of the street and its political parties. Thus we see that there are three scenarios:
The first: pessimistic, which is not to form a government, in which case all possibilities are open.
The second: optimistic and stipulates the formation of a government that everyone will be satisfied with and which has a plan for revival, and through which control of the economic, financial and consequently social reality will be restored.
The third: It is a central scenario, that is, a government is formed that partially satisfies the parties, and the result is to reduce the repercussions on the Lebanese citizen without reaching a complete solution.
4- The revenues of the Lebanese state are declining, what about the reserves of the Banque du Liban?
Indeed, Minister Ali Hassan Khalil had previously stated that treasury revenues have been declining by 40% since the beginning of the popular protests. This matter puts more pressure on the reserves of the Banque du Liban, because the latter pays state benefits, defends the lira, and pays wages in the public sector. How long can these precautions hold? So all things are hostage to the political situation. The deterioration of the political situation will lead to a rapid erosion of these precautions, while the improvement of the political conditions allows avoiding the prohibitions, that is, the occurrence of an order of three:
A- State bankruptcy.
B- The deterioration of social reality to the point of starvation.
C- The collapse of the lira exchange rate.
5- What about deposits in banks in dollars, is it possible to transfer them to the Lebanese pound? Regarding hair cut, are you currently applying it indirectly?
These possibilities raise the suspicion and anger of depositors and thus lead to almost daily confrontations in banks. The state has no right to prejudice the funds of depositors if the fight against corruption has not started. We are in a free economy that guarantees ownership and therefore the depositors ’money can only be touched by amending laws, which will not pass easily for people, given that whoever votes on such a decision will burn politically.
