NOVANEWS
by Philip Aleu
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed an agreement in Addis Ababa in the early hours of Monday, pledging to set up a transitional, power-sharing government by July 9, the country’s fourth anniversary of independence.
The two sides agreed to form what will be known as the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), which will remain in power for 30 months. Among its key tasks will be to restore peace in South Sudan, help displaced persons return home, oversee reconciliation and healing, overhaul the system of governance, and rebuild the country.
But the agreement does not mean that South Sudan’s conflict is finally over. Information Minister Michael Makuei said President Kiir and Machar will meet later this month to hammer out details of the agreement, which was based on proposals put forward by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional bloc that has been leading talks to end the fighting in South Sudan for more than a year.
“We agreed that on the 19th of this month, the principals plus the negotiating team will go back to Addis to continue talking and reach the final agreement not later than the fifth of March this year,’ Makuei said.
IGAD chair, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, said failure to reach a comprehensive peace agreement by that date ‘will have grave consequences to all of us and specifically to the leaders of South Sudan.’
Disagreements to be overcome
Under the terms of the agreement, Mr. Kiir would remain president. But Makuei said the two sides disagreed on who should hold two key positions – vice president and first vice president.
Machar’s rebel movement reportedly wants him to be named to the position of first vice president. But Makuei said the government wants the final agreement to include ‘two vice presidents with equal status so that their competencies are delegated to them by the president in accordance with the provision of our constitution.”
This is important because it would likely determine who would become president should the office become vacant during the transitional period.
The agreement calls for the National Legislative Assembly to be expanded from 332 members to 400. Sixty percent of the new members would be drawn from government ranks, 30 percent from Machar’s movement and 10 percent from other political parties.
The term of the assembly, which, under South Sudan’s transitional constitution, expires on July 9, would be extended to run concurrently with the transitional government’s term.
Elections postponed
Elections that were due to be held on June 30th would be postponed until the end of the 30-month transitional period. That means that elections would not be held until around January 2018.
The two sides agreed to ‘enter into a permanent ceasefire, to ensure sustainable peace…’ The ceasefire would be based on the oft-violated cessation of hostilities agreement, which was signed on Jan. 23 last year.
The two sides pledged ‘to complete negotiations… and sign a Peace Agreement no later than March 31.’
The agreement is the latest attempt to end fighting that has killed at least 10,000 people and driven nearly two million from their homes in South Sudan since conflict erupted in the capital, Juba, in December 2013. The cessation of hostilities agreement signed last year has been recommitted to several times, but never respected.
South Sudan – Introduction
South Sudan is a violent place. It was subjected to decades of war, and government capacity to contain violence is significantly constrained. In most developing countries that come out of conflict, observers talk about reconstruction, but in South Sudan, they are really talking about construction. South Sudan had very little to start with. In 2005, Juba [the capital of independent South Sudan] was still a garrison town that armed forces of the north controlled. All the various infrastructure, such as sewers, electricity, roads—dated to the British colonial days of the 1950s. So not only is South Sudan starting from scratch in terms of government institutions, but also its infrastructure.
After over four decades of the South’s conflict with the government in Khartoum, it is hard for most to comprehend how the South lacks the most basic physical and social infrastructure, including roads, schools, hospitals, and established social institutions other than religious organizations and the SPLA. During the almost 50 years from independence to the signing of the CPA in 2005, the central government in Khartoum made little to no investment in Southern Sudan. Roads and other transportation systems deteriorated to the point where travel between cities is in many cases best accomplished by air, and even then many airstrips (which are dirt except in Juba) are unusable in the wet season. Public education was intentionally neglected and missionary schools closed or harrassed, resulting in an overall illiteracy rate in the South at close to 80 percent (UN sources estimate 63% illiteracy for men and 88% for women).
On July 9, 2011 the Republic of South Sudan became an independent state — by somem counts the 193rd country in the world and the 54th member of the African Union. A transitional constitution took effect the same day and provides for executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The transitional constitution calls for the establishment of a representative National Constitutional Review Commission to conduct a national consultation, gathering views from communities and stakeholders across the country. The resulting draft permanent constitution would be presented to a National Constitutional Conference for consideration.
South Sudan is estimated to be the seventh-largest country in Africa and is bordered by Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, and Uganda. The country is divided by the White Nile River, which flows north out of the uplands of central Africa. During the annual floods of the Nile River system, South Sudan’s Sudd area is inundated. This large, swampy region of more than 100,000 sq. km dominates the center of the country and supports agriculture and extensive wildlife populations.
South Sudan has a population of over 8 million and a predominantly rural, subsistence economy; approximately 83% of the population is rural. There are 10 states: Central Equatoria (population 1,103,592), Eastern Equatoria (906,126), Jonglei (1,358,602), Lakes (695,730), Northern Bahr el Ghazal (720,898), Unity (585,801), Upper Nile (964,353), Warrap (972,928), Western Bahr el Ghazal (333,431), and Western Equatoria (619,029).
Except for an 11-year hiatus before the Comprehensive Peace Agreement [CPA] was signed in 2005, South Sudan was embroiled in conflict with the central authorities in pre-south independence Sudan following Sudan’s 1956 independence, resulting in major destruction and displacement since the end of colonial rule. South Sudan continues to cope with the effects of conflict, displacement, and insecurity. The country has many tribal groups and languages, and its people practice indigenous traditional beliefs, Christianity, and Islam. Over 90% of the population identifies themselves as Christian.
During more than 20 years of conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army, violence, famine, and disease killed more than 2 million people, forced an estimated 600,000 people to seek refuge in neighboring countries, and displaced approximately 4 million others within Sudan, creating the world’s largest population of internally displaced people. As of 2008, the UN estimated that nearly 2 million displaced people had returned to South Sudan and the three areas of Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei following the 2005 signing of the CPA.
As of late 2009, the UN estimated that Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)-related violence had displaced approximately 85,000 people in South Sudan, including more than 18,000 refugees from Democratic Republic of the Congo and Central African Republic. As of late 2011, the UN estimated that over 380,000 people were displaced across South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central African Republic as a result of LRA activity.
