NOVANEWS
By: Turcopolier Typepad
At popular request we will have a war game on the subject of the downfall of the current weller of jihadists in the context of the seemingly never ending sine curves of Sunni revivalism over the centuries.
The game will be played in turns- probably three, but, who knows… An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc.
I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario.
Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016. Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn.
Turn One Scenario:
Syria -The R+6 coalition of (Russia+SAA+Iran+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+progovernment sectarian militias+Palestinian militias continues its offensives all over NW Syria, South of Damascus and in the rebel held suburbs of Damascus.
Turkey – Erdogan’s crypto Islamist party regained control of the parliamentary political process in November. In spite of that, outrage has grown in Turkey against obvious ant-Kurdish government military and police action and Erdogan’s attempts to subvert the Kemalist secular constitution. Turkey maintains a supposedly neutral posture in the islamist war against secularism in Syria while continuing to facilitate islamist supply and reinforcements through Turkish territory. US/Turkish problems over Turkish bombing of the YPG Kurds (US allies) and their USSF advisers has continued and a possible withdrawal of permission for US use of the base at Incirlik looms.
Iraq – The Abadi government’s cooperation with Russia and Iran continues to increase.
Israel – Coordination of activities with Russia continues but occasional Israeli air attacks in Syria against Hizbullah targets has created additional tension with Russia.
Iran – Participation in the R+6 coalition continues to grow in both Syria and Iraq as well as in Russia’s diplomatic efforts with regard to Syria.
Gulfies -SA and friends in the Gulf continue to support jihadi enemies of secularism in Syria and Iraq.
US – America continues to support anti-Western forces in Syria and Iraq. US Army Green Berets are inserted into the territory controlled by the YPK Kurds to assist them in various ways.
Russia – Continues to press its diplomatic effort seeking to craft a peace that does not hand over Syria to jihadis. at the same time Russia continues to reinforce both its air and ground expeditionary forces in Syria.
Ukraine – The Kiev government continues to attempt to regain territory in the east.
Afghanistan – Government control continues to be contested heavily by Taliban forces.
World Economy – Oil and Gas prices around the world remain “soft.”
China – ???????
Comments in the game that are just meaningless or silly will not be posted or considered.
The question posed – What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016? Real World comments in this turn will close on 5 November, 2015.
Situation as of 1 February, 2016 (game time):
The R+6 coalition of forces has expanded its area of control and operations:
– The siege of Aleppo has been lifted by a successful advance of R+6 forces on the Axis of Advance – Jisr ash-Shugur/Idlib/Aleppo (Axis Green). Priority of Russian fire support and CAS has been a mainstay of advance on this axis. MRLS and tube artillery greatly facilitated the advance. A Russian motorized rifle brigade is the backbone of advance on this axis. along with SAA, IRGC, Hizbullah and ethnic and sectarian militias The advance was coordinated with an offensive of R+6 forces NE to SW from the Aleppo government perimeter on Axis Red. The jaws of the encirclement met NE of Idlib in a classickesselschlacht. Unicorn/jihadi casualties were heavy in the kesselbattle. There were defections among the jihadis and many fleeing toward the Turkish border. A pursuit to the border closed the rebel held northern entrance to Aleppo. The city is now besieged by R+6 forces. The government of Syria has offered amnesty to FSA members in Aleppo and there have been many surrenders thus far.
– A large redoubt zone now exists from the Lebanese border on the south to the Turkish border north of Latakia and extending inland (east) to Homs/Hama. (Phase Line Blue) The north-south M5 highway is in government control as far the M4/M5 junction east of Idlib. A Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in this area east of the coastal mountains as reinforcement to SAA and militia forces present there. There was heavy fighting around Homs and Hama. R+6 casualties were numerous but acceptable with hospitals in Damascus providing second echelon medical care.
– Russian personnel strength in Syria now is 20,000 organized in a provisional Motorized Rifle Division (-), a regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division, artillery units, headquarters, base support troops and two RuAF Regiments. The Russians have reached the limits of their available naval sea lift and air lift for reinforcement and supply. They are now seeking to negotiate commercial sea and airlift on a charter basis from several maritime powers. It is expected that if further lift can be arranged the Russians may further augment their forces in Syria and/or Iraq.
– In January a combined Russian/SAA airmobile operation reinforced Kuweires air base SE of Aleppo. This was followed by link-up with R+6 troops from the forces that relieved Aleppo. RuAF units have moved onto the base and are conducting operations from there as well as the coastal bases.
– YPG guerillas crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to move west to link-up with R+6 forces coming north from Kuweires AB. This effort has been blocked by repeated Turkish air strikes on the YPG Kurds. Seven US Army Green Berets embedded with the Kurds have been killed by Turkish air thus far.
– Turkey is seeking to limit USAF use of Incirlik AB while at the same time themselves flying missions against the YPG Kurds and their American advisers from the same base. The Obama Administration has been accused in European media of using American soldiers as human shields to limit Turkish action against the Kurds. To this charge they have no answer.
– Iran has 2,000 troops in the fight and Lebanese Hizbullah maintains a similar number on the Lebanese/Syrian mountain border country as well as 500 men with the R+6 forces around Aleppo.
– The Gulf countries continue to support jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.
– The Gulfie war against the Houthi/Zeidi people of Yemen continues to flounder. Saudi air continues to kill large numbers of civilians in what amounts to a Douhet style application of terror bombing. On the ground the Saudis and other Gulfie forces cannot “move” the tribal guerrillas and have suffered heavy losses in the Yemeni mountains east of Sanaa and in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia. There is considerable unrest in Riyadh among member of the royal family.
– China ??????
– Israel ?????
Game time is now 1 February, 2016. Instruction – Forecast events in this scenario worldwide through 1 June, 2016 (game time). Comments will close for Turn 2 on Sunday, 8 November, 2016. (real time)
Situation as of 2 June 2016 (Game Time)
– Combat Situation. R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).
In northern Syria. The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.
SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6. The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision. There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies. There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 “mouseholes” its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within. The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city. The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.
R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border. The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult. Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north. These are being attacked as forces are available.
In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including “rallied” FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road. A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.
RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel. R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan. A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector. Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.
YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes. In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds. As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.
– Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.
– The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba. Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel. Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war. The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.
– Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon. RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous. IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.
– Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.
– In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country’s present governance. There are many calls for King Salman’s abdication.
– In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.
– Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.
Requirement: Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time). Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time)
At popular request we will have a war game on the subject of the downfall of the current weller of jihadists in the context of the seemingly never ending sine curves of Sunni revivalism over the centuries.
The game will be played in turns- probably three, but, who knows… An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc.
I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario.
Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016. Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn.
Turn One Scenario:
Syria -The R+6 coalition of (Russia+SAA+Iran+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+progovernment sectarian militias+Palestinian militias continues its offensives all over NW Syria, South of Damascus and in the rebel held suburbs of Damascus.
Turkey – Erdogan’s crypto Islamist party regained control of the parliamentary political process in November. In spite of that, outrage has grown in Turkey against obvious ant-Kurdish government military and police action and Erdogan’s attempts to subvert the Kemalist secular constitution. Turkey maintains a supposedly neutral posture in the islamist war against secularism in Syria while continuing to facilitate islamist supply and reinforcements through Turkish territory. US/Turkish problems over Turkish bombing of the YPG Kurds (US allies) and their USSF advisers has continued and a possible withdrawal of permission for US use of the base at Incirlik looms.
Iraq – The Abadi government’s cooperation with Russia and Iran continues to increase.
Israel – Coordination of activities with Russia continues but occasional Israeli air attacks in Syria against Hizbullah targets has created additional tension with Russia.
Iran – Participation in the R+6 coalition continues to grow in both Syria and Iraq as well as in Russia’s diplomatic efforts with regard to Syria.
Gulfies -SA and friends in the Gulf continue to support jihadi enemies of secularism in Syria and Iraq.
US – America continues to support anti-Western forces in Syria and Iraq. US Army Green Berets are inserted into the territory controlled by the YPK Kurds to assist them in various ways.
Russia – Continues to press its diplomatic effort seeking to craft a peace that does not hand over Syria to jihadis. at the same time Russia continues to reinforce both its air and ground expeditionary forces in Syria.
Ukraine – The Kiev government continues to attempt to regain territory in the east.
Afghanistan – Government control continues to be contested heavily by Taliban forces.
World Economy – Oil and Gas prices around the world remain “soft.”
China – ???????
Comments in the game that are just meaningless or silly will not be posted or considered.
The question posed – What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016? Real World comments in this turn will close on 5 November, 2015.
Situation as of 1 February, 2016 (game time):
The R+6 coalition of forces has expanded its area of control and operations:
– The siege of Aleppo has been lifted by a successful advance of R+6 forces on the Axis of Advance – Jisr ash-Shugur/Idlib/Aleppo (Axis Green). Priority of Russian fire support and CAS has been a mainstay of advance on this axis. MRLS and tube artillery greatly facilitated the advance. A Russian motorized rifle brigade is the backbone of advance on this axis. along with SAA, IRGC, Hizbullah and ethnic and sectarian militias The advance was coordinated with an offensive of R+6 forces NE to SW from the Aleppo government perimeter on Axis Red. The jaws of the encirclement met NE of Idlib in a classickesselschlacht. Unicorn/jihadi casualties were heavy in the kesselbattle. There were defections among the jihadis and many fleeing toward the Turkish border. A pursuit to the border closed the rebel held northern entrance to Aleppo. The city is now besieged by R+6 forces. The government of Syria has offered amnesty to FSA members in Aleppo and there have been many surrenders thus far.
– A large redoubt zone now exists from the Lebanese border on the south to the Turkish border north of Latakia and extending inland (east) to Homs/Hama. (Phase Line Blue) The north-south M5 highway is in government control as far the M4/M5 junction east of Idlib. A Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in this area east of the coastal mountains as reinforcement to SAA and militia forces present there. There was heavy fighting around Homs and Hama. R+6 casualties were numerous but acceptable with hospitals in Damascus providing second echelon medical care.
– Russian personnel strength in Syria now is 20,000 organized in a provisional Motorized Rifle Division (-), a regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division, artillery units, headquarters, base support troops and two RuAF Regiments. The Russians have reached the limits of their available naval sea lift and air lift for reinforcement and supply. They are now seeking to negotiate commercial sea and airlift on a charter basis from several maritime powers. It is expected that if further lift can be arranged the Russians may further augment their forces in Syria and/or Iraq.
– In January a combined Russian/SAA airmobile operation reinforced Kuweires air base SE of Aleppo. This was followed by link-up with R+6 troops from the forces that relieved Aleppo. RuAF units have moved onto the base and are conducting operations from there as well as the coastal bases.
– YPG guerillas crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to move west to link-up with R+6 forces coming north from Kuweires AB. This effort has been blocked by repeated Turkish air strikes on the YPG Kurds. Seven US Army Green Berets embedded with the Kurds have been killed by Turkish air thus far.
– Turkey is seeking to limit USAF use of Incirlik AB while at the same time themselves flying missions against the YPG Kurds and their American advisers from the same base. The Obama Administration has been accused in European media of using American soldiers as human shields to limit Turkish action against the Kurds. To this charge they have no answer.
– Iran has 2,000 troops in the fight and Lebanese Hizbullah maintains a similar number on the Lebanese/Syrian mountain border country as well as 500 men with the R+6 forces around Aleppo.
– The Gulf countries continue to support jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.
– The Gulfie war against the Houthi/Zeidi people of Yemen continues to flounder. Saudi air continues to kill large numbers of civilians in what amounts to a Douhet style application of terror bombing. On the ground the Saudis and other Gulfie forces cannot “move” the tribal guerrillas and have suffered heavy losses in the Yemeni mountains east of Sanaa and in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia. There is considerable unrest in Riyadh among member of the royal family.
– China ??????
– Israel ?????
Game time is now 1 February, 2016. Instruction – Forecast events in this scenario worldwide through 1 June, 2016 (game time). Comments will close for Turn 2 on Sunday, 8 November, 2016. (real time)
Situation as of 2 June 2016 (Game Time)
– Combat Situation. R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).
In northern Syria. The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.
SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6. The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision. There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies. There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 “mouseholes” its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within. The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city. The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.
R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border. The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult. Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north. These are being attacked as forces are available.
In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including “rallied” FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road. A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.
RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel. R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan. A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector. Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.
YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes. In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds. As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.
– Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.
– The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba. Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel. Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war. The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.
– Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon. RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous. IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.
– Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.
– In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country’s present governance. There are many calls for King Salman’s abdication.
– In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.
– Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.
Requirement: Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time). Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time)
