DETAILS OF THE CEASE FIRE AND WHY IT MUST FAIL

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Why is FM Mu’allim smiling?

Turkey has not parted with Saudi Arabia.  Turkey which is led by a crackpot president, who is a card-carrying member of the Muslim Brotherhood, a group of Islamist bourgeois fundamentalists, and who are the absolute horror of the Saudi ruling family of apes, is set to participate in a conference to be held in the Kazakhstani capital of Ostana.  The Turkish imbecile foreign minister, Mavlut Kavusoghlu, declared that his Turk delegation would not so much as sit in a room with anyone from Dr. Assad’s administration suggesting that they would sit in a room full of terrorists.

Only a few days ago, the three parties to the Syrian Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement, Russia, Iran and Turkey, declared that all three parties signed on to it and that it was in 2 parts;  one part concerned the cease fire on the ground and the other provided a pathway toward a total political resolution of the conflict.

During the negotiations, the Turks, apparently playing their Saudi card, demanded the removal of all Iranian-backed forces and all troops from the Lebanese Resistance, i.e. Hizbollah.  That was a non-starter.  Sergei Lavrov contacted both his Iranian counterparts in the negotiations to test their attitude about such matters, and he had to probe the Syrian position.  Both Iran and Damascus told Mr. Lavrov that there would be no such withdrawal of forces.  In fact, once HZB leader, Hassan Nasrallah, got wind of the Turk demand, HZB immediately issued a statement through its mouthpiece, Al-Manar, that HZB would never withdraw from Syria until the last terrorist was killed.  Dr. Assad’s government seconded that position.  Sergei Lavrov told the Turks that such a position was rejected by all other parties, including Moscow.  So much for the Turk demand.

Russia then countered with its own demand insisting on the removal of all non-Syrians (i.e. foreigners) from Syria.  Lavrov also asked for a clarification regarding Harakat Ahraar Al-Shaam, which is bonded to Nusra/Alqaeda and, ergo, a prohibited terrorist group.  The Turks informed FM Lavrov that they would have to reflect on his demand.  It is well known that Ahraar Al-Shaam is part and parcel of the entire Nusra/Alqaeda network and is fully funded by the rodent Saudis and their equally repulsive cousins in Qatar.  When it appeared that Ahraar Al-Shaam would be the object of objections from all parties, Saudi Arabia, through its direct contacts with the group, organized a positive response to the cease-fire placing this savage grouping of psychopaths inside the “moderate” camp, a laughing-stock move by the inept, clueless Saudis.

By being included in the cease-fire agreement, Ahraar Al-Shaam’s arm in Waadi Baradaa, yesterday, agreed to a withdrawal of its forces from the area to allow Syrian engineers to restore water to the capital, Damascus, although it did so under intense pressure from local notables.

The groups involved in the deal are now well-known:

Faylaq Al-Shaam

Harakat Ahraar Al-Shaam

Jaysh Al-Islam

Thuwwaar Al-Shaam

Jaysh Al-Mujaahideen

Jaysh Idlib Al-Hurr

Al-Jabha Al-Shaamiyya

The agreement calls for no further Syrian Air Force sorties over the territories infested by these groups.  Only Russia will be permitted to make such flyovers.

The groups are required to leave all areas occupied by Nusra/Alqaeda to make it possible for the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army units to exterminate the Alqaeda criminals who will, therefore, be easier to identify.  It is a stipulated clause in the agreement that Nusra/Alqaeda, ISIS and any other group deemed terrorist by the United Nations be excluded emphatically from the ceasefire.

It was further agreed that nothing shall affect the territorial unity of the Syrian Arab Republic.  In effect, this is an open rejection of American fall-back policy aiming to dismember Syria.  The Turks, Iranians and Russians want nothing to do with Kurdish revanchism or Kurdish efforts to establish their own state.  Even a federation of sorts is explicitly rejected.  It was not difficult to get the Turks to agree to that one.

As we wrote, the Syrian Air Force would not conduct aerial attacks.  No party to the cease-fire could strive to gain more territory.  This does not mean that the Syrian Army could not attack ISIS or Nusra/Alqaeda – they are, after all, excluded.

The Turks openly refuse to sit with any Assad representative and any member of the PYG, PKK or the American-supported SDF.  In truth, the Americans have preserved this remnant of their miserable failures in Syria, to wit: supporting Kurdish emancipation, as a stop-gap in the event they could not oust Dr. Assad in some painful way.  The fact that Turkey will not consider sitting with any Kurdish group is testament to the fact that Erdoghan is extricating himself and his country from the West although his plans to extend the Qatar natural gas pipeline through his own country could have been useful in shooing him into EU membership.  It might be that such dreams of economic power are merely expressions of his own vindictiveness toward a coy Europe.

The ceasefire agreement, relevantly, does not discuss any removal of the Syrian president.  The Syrians, Iranians and Russians insisted on this.  The Turks, according to my source, are only hinting at their opposition to Dr. Assad as a face-saving gesture.

Moreover, the sides participating in the cease-fire must allow humanitarian aid into all area of Syria not controlled by the excluded groups.  This might have been the reason why the terrorists in Waadi Baradaa agreed to leave.  As a detail which was specifically mentioned in the agreement, all armed forces are required to pull back from the Castillo Road in order to create a demilitarized zone – a no-fly zone, if you will, that should permit unfettered aid into the northern capital of Aleppo.

With the conference coming up in Kazakhstan, the U.N.,  feeling left out, has declared an intent to hold a Geneva Conference in February 2017 essentially and superfluously creating a parallel peace process to make DeMistura relevant again.

John Kerry has announced his support for the ceasefire, but, reportedly is embarrassed by the fact that he was not invited by any of the three parties.  John Kirby, the State Department buffoon, told a reporter that the U.S. was not “sidelined” although it was.

ANALYSIS:  Saudi Arabians are not capable of thinking in nuanced measures.  They are, after all, bedouins living in American-built air conditioned homes, that is if the Arabians have the connections.  Otherwise, most Saudi citizens don’t have homes and are owed back wages, that is assuming they actually ever worked.  And if they never worked, which is the majority, they have nothing but an occasional handout to live on.  The Saudi ruling tribe of apes has stripped the country of all its wealth.  The money is in the U.S. and Britain, for the most part.  If you want to know why the limeys have become so sycophantish, obsequious and “osculo-buttockish” when it comes to the robed Arabian grubs, it’s because the Arabians own their island, their football teams and even the queen’s knickers.

To be brutally frank, the Turks are just as feckless.  Erdoghan is committed to crushing the Kurdish aspiration to statehood.  He is even opposed to the state being established in other countries like Syria, Iraq or Iran.  He doesn’t care if they set up their state in Namibia or the Atacama Desert.  So, for the moment, he has given up on overthrowing Dr. Assad.  That doesn’t mean he won’t take up the project again when the circumstances permit.  It means, he’s just going along with the program because he is focused on destroying Kurdish nationalism, humiliating the United States for both trying to overthrow him and sheltering Fethullah Gulen in Pennsylvania, and because he thinks the Saudis are too insistent on Assad to make all this worthwhile to him.

The “opposition”, as I have written recently, is nothing more than a bunch of hotel-lizards, who would just as well go on living this life as long as the Arabians will pay for it.  Nobody cares about their existence.  Certainly not the United States which figured out a long time ago that they were just a bunch of doctors and disgruntled felons.   Certainly, the terrorists, all 300,000 of them in Syria, don’t give a hoot about the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces (NACOSROF).  Notice the group is not a part of any cease fire deal.  They were not consulted. They were not mentioned.  They might as well not exist.  And so, they don’t really exist.

Russia is languishing in the limelight today.  Its ability to cobble together a triumvirate of influential actors like Iran and Turkey while having Dr. Assad on board, has given the Kremlin the kind leverage and prestige it has sought for decades since the collapse of the USSR.  Note the absence of the United States which is now bordering on pariah status in the Near East.  With no relations with Iran and hostility with Erdoghan’s Turkey, the U.S. can only flail its arms in a vacuum, booting out Russian diplomats on the flimsiest of excuses – vilifying Moscow for its democratic annexation of the Crimea and its support for Russian-speaking Ukrainians – accusing the Kremlin of dabbling in the U.S. elections.  At every level, the Russian state has one-upped Obama’s anemic policies.  Vladimir Putin has recently countermanded Sergei Lavrov’s announced desire to reciprocate the U.S.’s mass deportation of Russian diplomatic staff because he knows that in 3 weeks Obama will be nothing more than a talk-circuit celebrity.  Trump is coming with a new Secretary of State with a different take on Russia. Today, Russia is doing what Steffan DeMistura could not:  it is at the helm of a credible movement to end the war in Syria.  Russia has advanced a new resolution at the U.N. endorsing the ceasefire deal.  Imagine the U.S. vetoing it or abstaining.  No way.  Even Kerry has come out a few days ago to praise the deal.  Kerry even choked when he demanded that terrorist groups cooperate with the ceasefire.

Iran is sitting pretty also.  It is involved in peacemaking.  It has the military clout to persist in the war against Wahhabism in Syria, but, prefers to observe how Iraq and Syria are coming back, guaranteeing the territorial continuity needed to extend its natural gas pipelines to the Mediterranean.  All Iran has to do is continue its support of the government in Damascus while building up its economy in the post-sanctions era.  Germans are rushing to Iran for business.  Boeing is selling billions of dollars worth of aircraft to Teheran.  Could it be any better?

The Syrian Army is at a critical juncture.  If the ceasefire takes effect, tens of thousands of Syrian troops will be freed to confront and exterminate Nusra/Alqaeda and ISIS.  In a matter of 6 months, with Russian and Iranian help, the army should be able to eviscerate the jihadist movement in Syria leaving only the remnant terrorist parties to the ceasefire as some kind of paper tiger to be slowly burned into ashes.  The terrorist rodents are feeling this pressure now and are rushing to take advantage of the amnesty offered by the government.  In time, as the ceasefire brings benefits to all involved, many of these groups (except Ahraar Al-Shaam and Jaysh Al-Islam) will cease to exist.  The two groups mentioned are only singled out because they exist by the will of the Saudi monkey king.

ISIS is dying.  Recruitment is way down as more and more rodents around the world see the bankruptcy of a group whose fame on earth is measured by the exotic brutality it films and distributes.  Already there is talk of a failed caliphate and a need to find new stomping grounds like Libya, Mauretania or Chad.  The Iraqi Army is at the doors of Mosul and a variety of powerful players are vying with one another to see who can conquer Al-Raqqa first.  We have written before that Abu Bakr Al-Baghdaadi was killed this year by a Syrian bomber flying over eastern Syria.  We stand by that report.  Just as in Afghanistan where the Taliban kept the death of Mullah Omar under wraps for 2 years before finally announcing it, the ISIS imbeciles are doing the same thing.  Abu Bakr Al-Baghdaadi left no procedure to select a successor and, judging by what we know of his psychoses, would not have left such a process.  ISIS is virtually leaderless and exists strictly for the purpose of temporary financial gain.

And, so goes Alqaeda/Nusra.  Call it what you will, it is still the most detested terrorist movement anywhere.  Its leader, Abu Muhammad Al-Jawlaani, is not in Idlib or Turkey.  His life is literally up for grabs.   He is blamed for the loss of Aleppo.  The Saudis are fed up with him and his insatiable horde of rodents who constantly cry out for more wages the Saudis cannot afford.  If Turkey follows the Russian writ, no weapons or money shall come to his terrorists.  He won’t have much time when that happens.

Jaysh Al-Islam, the openly Saudi-led terrorist group most famous for plundering the East Ghoutaa, has lost leader after leader.  The ‘Alloosh criminals have been assassinated or humiliated out of leadership.  They are increasingly a crazy quilt of sub-groups desperate to hold on to any emolument.  The Saudis are tired of these cry-babies also.  All the Saudis can offer now is a promise to provide haven for them in Saudi Arabia when the day comes and amnesty is no longer available.   This group is under intense pressure from MOK in Jordan to continue fighting despite their membership in the terrorist coalition mentioned at the beginning of this article.  Despite a supposed cessation of hostilities, JI mounted an attack on SAA positions yesterday at ‘Utaayaa and Hazarmaa which resulted in an SAA counter-offensive that liberated both villages.  The SAA also responded with a rocket attack on JI forces prepping to assault more SAA outposts.  At Waadi Turmaa, 5 JI rodents were killed.  At Al-Hammooriyya, more rodents were put to death by the SAAF when Military Intelligence detected a pack of rats readying to hit an SAA and PDC position.  And so for Al-Muhamadiyya.   Well, and so for the ceasefire.

It is impossible to believe that this ceasefire will hold for very long.  Ahraar Al-Shaam is a part of Nusra/Alqaeda and cannot sit idly by as the SAA turns its mother organization into so much useless compost.  We predict that Ahraar Al-Shaam recruits will be encouraged to shift to Nusra and avoid the inevitable surrender to the SAA.   But, by the time Donald Trump takes office and schmoozes with Vlad, it will be too late for any rescue.  ISIS and Nusra will be annilhilated and Saudi Arabia will have gone financially bust.  The ceasefire will be violated and the SAA and its allies will push finally into Al-Raqqa and Idlib to polish off the remaining jihadists.  It will be a moment of glory and the grist of epics sung into the next century.

HOMS:

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Shareefa Village and all hills around it have been liberated south of the Tayfoor Airbase.  We can confirm the deaths of 70+ rodents  of ISIS.  On top of that, the SAA foiled an attempted attack on SAA checkpoints northeast of Tayfoor in which 70+ rodents were killed while the SAA has confirmed the concomitant destruction of 7 tanks, a BMP APC, and 12 pickups with 23mm cannons.

At the northern end of the Tayfoor (T-4) AB, 50+  rodents were killed or wounded along with the destruction of another 3 tanks, an armored car, 2 cannons and 5 pickups with 23mm cannons.

At Tallat Al-Aswad, a car with 6 rats was put to the torch killing all inside.

ALEPPO: 

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Water from the Euphrates is finally beginning to flow again after ISIS launched an attack meant to disrupt water delivery to the great northern city.  Pumps are now sending water to treatment plants in Aleppo.  We are pleased to note also that terrorists are slowly leaving the ‘Ayn Al-Feeja area to allow for water flow to the capital of Damascus.  

image: http://i.alalam.ir/news/Image/original/2016/12/31/alalam_636187991242262608_25f_4x3.jpg

(Photo courtesy of Al-Manar)

Enjoy this scene of American-manufactured weapons and ammunition sent to the terrorists via Turkey.  The arsenal was found yesterday by Russian soldiers.